COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY ANALYSIS IN LDCs

Abstract. The use of CGE models has gained much popularity among policy analysts in LDCs and there is a fast growing body of literature on this area of economics. In this survey, the advantages of general equilibrium approach over partial equilibrium approach in analysing a wide range of policy issues are highlighted. The evolution of CGE modelling is discussed and more than 60 CGE applications related to different policy issues in LDCs are surveyed. This comprehensive survey shows that the CGE models have become quite popular analytical tools among policy analysts in LDCs over the last decade or so. The debate in the economic profession regarding the value and appropriateness of using CGE models for policy analysis is examined in the final section of this paper. Some of the criticisms levelled at CGE models are discussed and it is argued that despite this criticism such models are capable of providing insight into important policy problems.     

网络教育浅谈

本通过对我国教育现状的分析和对网络教育特点的阐析，提出网络教育对现行教育体制的挑战，对我国高等教育由精英教育转向全民教育的深远影响，以及存在的差距和未来发展趋势。     

通用ATS实现技术研究

我国武器装备通用ATS(自动测试系统)经历了从引进、仿制到自行研制的过程，但是目前通用ATS总的局面是通用ATS不通用，这种局面主要是由于国内对通用ATS实现技术缺乏统一认识造成的。基于此，本文研究了与开发通用ATS密切相关的标准／规范、硬件配置技术、接口技术、集成测试软件开发环境技术。本文的研究结果适用于所有开发通用ATS的项目。     

区域经济学主流化的新格局:迈向新综合的空间一般均衡理论

区域经济学的研究从1990年后，日趋活跃、争论纷呈，在某种意义上讲，发生了很大的转向。即由克鲁格曼发轫的新经济地理把该领域的某些问题带向经济学主流的一般均衡分析框架下来讨论，他们更加宏伟的蓝图是要实现具有新综合特征的空间一般均衡理论，为区域经济学的研究注入了新的活力。该文简述了这些新理论的基本模型、主要特征和模型的扩展及对经济体系空间特性研究的主要贡献，以及由之而引起的各方面的争论和共识。     

General equilibrium impact of an energy-saving policy in the public sector

We analyse a disregarded environmental policy instrument: a switch in government expenditure away from energy (or other natural resources) and toward a composite good which includes energy-saving expenditure. We first develop two variants of an analytical general equilibrium model. A composite good is produced with constant returns to scale, and energy is imported or produced domestically with diminishing returns, yielding a differential rent to its owners. The government purchases energy and composite goods from private firms. Such a policy unambiguously increases employment. It also raises private consumption and welfare under two conditions: (i) it is not too costly and (ii) the initial share of the resource is smaller in public spending than in private consumption, or the difference is small enough. We then run numerically a model featuring both importation and domestic production of energy (oil, gas and electricity), for the OECD as a whole. Simulations show that employment, welfare and private consumption rise. We provide magnitudes for different parameter values. Earlier versions of this paper have benefited from conference participants at the European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, International Society for Ecological Economics World Congress, CIRED seminar and EUREQua environmental economics seminar. We especially thank Michèle Sadoun and two anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Probability of survival in a random exchange economy with dependent agents

Summary. In this paper I analyze the general equilibrium in a random Walrasian economy. Dependence among agents is introduced in the form of dependency neighborhoods. Under the uncertainty, an agent may fail to survive due to a meager endowment in a particular state (direct effect), as well as due to unfavorable equilibrium price system at which the value of the endowment falls short of the minimum needed for survival (indirect terms-of-trade effect). To illustrate the main result I compute the stochastic limit of equilibrium price and probability of survival of an agent in a large Cobb-Douglas economy. Received June 7, 2001; revised version: January 7, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" I would like to thank Mukul Majumdar and Thomas DiCiccio for helpful discussion and an anonymous referee for valuable comments and suggestions.     

Volatility in the knowledge economy

Summary. We seek to explain the economic volatility of the last 6 years, in particular the rapid expansion and contraction of the knowledge sectors. Our hypothesis is that these sectors amplify the business cycle due to their increasing returns to scale, growing faster than others in an upswing and contracting faster in a downswing. To test this hypothesis we postulate a general equilibrium model with two sectors: one with increasing returns that are external to the firm and endogenously determined - the knowledge sector - and the other with constant returns to scale. We introduce a new measure of volatility of output, a real beta, and derive a resolving equation, from which we prove that the increasing return sectors exhibit more volatility then other sectors. We validate the main results on US macro economic data of real GDP by industry (2-3 digits SIC codes) of the 1977-2001 period, and provide policy conclusions.Received: 18 March 2002, Revised: 16 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D5, D58, E10, L50, L52, O38, O51.Correspondence to: Graciela Chichilnisky     

关于提高高等数学教学质量的几个途径

随着高校的不断扩招,一般院校（特别是边远地区院校）的生源质量在逐年下降.如何提高高等数学教学质量,这是我们每一个高校数学教育工作者面临的新问题.注重初、高等数学知识与方法的衔接,实施分级教学,消除非智力因素对学习高等数学的影响是提高高等数学教学质量的几个有效途径.     

On a clear day you might see an environmental Kuznets curve

We shed some new light on the Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and show how it can be viewed as a particular form of equilibrium relationship, where technology and preference parameters determine the shape of the curve. In contrast to most of the literature on the EKC, we estimate a theoretically consistent model on long-run data (Swedish sulfur emission, covering the period 1900–2002). Furthermore, we test and date structural change. The model suggests four regimes, 1900–1918, 1919–1933, 1934–1967 and 1968–2002, generating four rather different patterns for pollution over time. The policy-conclusions are consonant with Pearce’s general view about the EKC: there is no theoretical presumption that it has an inverted U shape, nor should any country try to “grow out of the environmental problems” without analyzing the benefits and costs of so doing.     

Voting in assemblies of shareholders and incomplete markets

Summary. An economy with two dates is considered, one state at the first date and a finite number of states at the last date. Shareholders determine production plans by voting - one share, one vote - and at -majority stable stock market equilibria, alternative production plans are supported by at most percent of the shareholders. It is shown that a -majority stable stock market equilibrium exists if where S is the number of states at the last date and J is the number of firms. Moreover, an example shows that -majority stable stock market equilibria need not exist for smaller s.Received: 23 December 2002, Revised: 14 June 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D21, D52, D71, G39. Correspondence to: Hervé CrésThe authors are grateful to an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions. Financial support from the Danish Research Councils and hospitality of HEC is gratefully acknowledged by Mich Tvede and support from Fondation HEC is gratefully acknowledged by Hervé Crés.